The wheat complex is showing weakness with a larger than expected US production number reported on Friday. Chicago SRW wheat is trading with 6 to 7 cent losses on Friday. KC HRW contracts are slipping back with midday weakness of 7 to 8 cents. MPLS spring wheat is showing losses of 10 to 11 cents in most contracts on Friday’s midday.

Crop Production data from this morning showed all wheat production hiked by 8 mbu to 1.929 mub, as yield was raised by 1 bpa from last month to 52.6. Winter wheat production was dropped by 37 mbu to 1.345 bbu on a drop to acreage. Spring wheat came in above estimates at 503.6 mbu, with durum at 79.7 mbu.   

The larger US production and increased carryover (851 mbu +10) was offset by an increase to exports by 25 mbu to 850 mbu. That cut the stocks estimate for new crop by 8 mbu to 890. World wheat stock for the end of 2025/26 were down 1.24 MMT from last month at 261.52 MMT. That came as Canadian stocks were cut on a 1 MMT reduction to production. 

FranceAgriMer shows the soft wheat crop from France at 68% gd/ex, up 1 point from last week, with harvest at 36%.

Jul 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.50 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents,

Sep 25 CBOT Wheat  is at $5.47 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

Jul 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.14, up 8 1/2 cents,

Sep 25 KCBT Wheat  is at $5.27 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

Jul 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $6.22, down 1 cent,

Sep 25 MGEX Wheat  is at $6.21 3/4, down 10 cents,